Oscars 2012: Very Early Predictions

So, the Oscars nominations have been announced and I've somehow managed to miss a rather large amount of the anointed movies (The Descendants, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help, Moneyball and War Horse), although some of these are yet to be released in the UK.

Of the films I named in my top eleven of last year, only three make the short list (although admittedly Black Swan featured in last years awards) but none of this comes as much of a surprise.  I think "Drive" perhaps should have featured in "Best Director" or "Best Cinematography", but that never seemed likely to happen.  "Marcy Martha May Marlene" however, definitely should have been acknowledged, along with it's star Elizabeth Olsen.

As an animator I'm pleased to see Andy Serkis has not been nominated for his motion capture work in "Rise of the Planet of the Apes."  While Serkis is a fine actor and gives a great performance, a nomination would have denigrated all the hard work done by the animators who had to convert his movement into the physiology of an ape.  Perhaps as this technology gains popularity there should be a separate category that acknowledges both actor and animators.  For this reason I'm also relieved to see "The Adventures of Tintin" has not been nominated in best animation (although I found the film entertaining). If "Tintin" had been nominated "Best Animated Feature" then "Avatar" surely would have been eligible too.

The main category that seems way off is the "Best Documentary" which has a ton of great films that didn't get included.  The shortlist does not include "The Interrupters", "Project Nim", "Senna", "George Harrison: Living in the Material World", "Life in a Day", "Being Elmo: A Puppeteers Journey" or "Tabloid."

Anyway, here's my very early guesses at what and who will win the major awards (predicted winners in bold, films I've seen in black, films I've not seen in blue).  As there's many films I've yet to see, I've made my decisions based on general awards buzz and critical reaction.

Best Picture

• The Artist
• The Descendants
• Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
• The Help
• Hugo
• Midnight in Paris
• Moneyball
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse

Best Director

• Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Alexdander Payne, The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese, Hugo
• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Best Actor In a Supporting Role

• Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
• Jonah Hill, Moneyball
• Nick Nolte, Warrior
• Christopher Plummer, Beginners
• Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

• Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
• Jessica Chastain, The Help
• Mellisa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
• Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
• Octavia Spencer, The Help

Best Actor in a Leading Role

• Demian Bichir, A Better Life
• George Clooney, The Descendants
• Jean Dujardin, The Artist
• Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Best Actress in a Leading Role

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis, The Help
• Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Animated Feature Film

• A Cat in Paris, Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
• Chico & Rita, Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
• Kung Fu Panda 2, Jennifer Yuh Nelson
• Puss in Boots, Chris Miller
• Rango, Gore Verbinski

Cinematography

• The Artist, Guillaume Schiffman
• The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, Jeff Cronenweth
• Hugo, Robert Richardson
• The Tree of Life, Emmanuel Lubezki
• War Horse, Janusz Kaminski

Foreign Language Film

• Belgium, “Bullhead”, Michael R. Roskam, director
• Canada, “Monsieur Lazhar”, Philippe Falardeau, director
• Iran, “A Separation”, Asghar Farhadi, director
• Israel, “Footnote”, Joseph Cedar, director
• Poland, “In Darkness”, Agnieszka Holland, director

Music (Original Song)

• “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets, Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
• “Real in Rio” from Rio, Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown, Lyric by Siedah Garret.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

• The Descendants, Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
• Hugo, Screenplay by John Logan
• The Ides of March, Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
• Moneyball, Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin.  Story by Stan Chervin
• Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Screenplay by Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan

Writing (Original Screenplay)

• The Artist, Written by Michel Hazanavicius
• Bridesmaids, Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
• Margin Call, Written by J.C. Chandor
• Midnight in Paris, Written by Woody Allen
• A Separation, Written by Asghar Farhadi

Art Direction

• The Artist: Laurence Bennett (Production Design); Robert Gould (Set Decoration)
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2: Stuart Craig (Production Design); Stephenie McMillan (Set Decoration)
• Hugo: Dante Ferretti (Production Design); Francesca Lo Schiavo (Set Decoration)
• War Horse: Rick Carter (Production Design); Lee Sandales (Set Decoration)

Costume Design

• Anonymous, Lisy Christl
• The Artist, Mark Bridges
• Hugo, Sandy Powell
• Jane Eyre, Michael O’Connor
• W.E., Arianne Phillips

Documentary Feature

• Hell and Back Again
• If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
• Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
• Pina
• Undefeated

Film Editing

• The Artist, Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
• The Descendants, Kevin Tent
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
• Hugo, Thelma Schoonmaker
• Moneyball, Christopher Tellefsen

Makeup

• Albert Nobbs, Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin
• The Iron Lady, Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland

Music (Original Score)

• The Adventures of Tintin, John Williams
• The Artist, Ludovic Bource
• Hugo, Howard Shore
• Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Alberto Iglesias
• War Horse, John Williams

Visual Effects

• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
• Hugo, Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning
• Real Steel, Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg
• Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Dan Glass, Brad Friedman, Douglas Trumbull and Michael Fink

From my predictions, "The Artist" should finish with the most awards (6), but we'lll have to wait and see.  I'll hopefully reappraise my choices nearer the awards in late February when I've hopefully had time to see more of the films.